Tropical Storm PAUL

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

...PAUL BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THE CENTER OF PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAUL IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN
TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...24.0 N...107.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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