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Tropical Storm PAUL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

...OUTER SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL AFFECTING SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD
ON THE EAST COAST. 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 245 MILES
...390 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. 

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...109.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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