Tropical Storm PAUL

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...PAUL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA
BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
375 MILES...600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.3 N...111.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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