| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm PAUL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

AFTER TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE
CENTER BECOMING MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING
DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE CENTER IS NEARING
THE COASTLINE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER IF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED...PAUL OR ITS
REMNANT COULD LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.  IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEGRADING STRUCTURE...THE SYSTEM WILL
PROBABLY NOT MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH MUCH LONGER.  DISSIPATION
SHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.

EVEN IN A WEAKENED STATE THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 24.0N 107.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN