ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 PAUL HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE YET DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A BIG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ASSUMING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF 50 TO 60 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING PAUL AND WITH MASSIVE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE... WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 8 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS PAUL WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A WEAK SURFACE LOW LINGERING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WHILE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES RACING EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 21.8N 109.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 108.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 105.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Oct-2006 08:35:03 UTC