Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006
 
PAUL HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE YET DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR. THE CENTER
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A BIG BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
CONTINUITY AND ASSUMING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF 50 TO 60 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPROACHING PAUL AND WITH MASSIVE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. 

PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...AND
IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 
8 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS
PAUL WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A WEAK SURFACE LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WHILE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CONTINUES RACING EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CENTER
OF PAUL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 21.8N 109.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N 108.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N 105.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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