ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 A RECENT AMSU PASS NEAR 1100 UTC INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS BECOME DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SEPARATED FROM THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. THIS REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...360/7...REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. SINCE PAUL IS QUICKLY BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POINTS THROUGH 48 HOURS ESSENTIALLY TAKING WHAT IS LEFT OF PAUL JUST SOUTH OF BAJA AND TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS AND SOME ADDITIONAL TRACK ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...AND THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. INDEED...PAUL COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. ALL WATCHES AND WARNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...SOME OF THE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.9N 112.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 109.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 14:45:03 UTC