ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 PAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A HURRICANE. PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS. A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND PAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND MEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.1N 111.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 02:30:04 UTC