ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS INTENSIFYING WITH INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS PAUL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BASED ON LAND INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN WITH MAINLAND MEXICO AT 72 HOURS. PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 290/7. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY...ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.9N 110.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2006 20:35:04 UTC