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Tropical Storm OLIVIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006               
0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1243W 34 72   3(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 12 172N 1243W 50  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 172N 1243W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 178N 1225W 34  7  26(33)   3(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 24 178N 1225W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 178N 1225W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 185N 1202W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 36 185N 1202W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 185N 1202W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 190N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 190N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 190N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 195N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 72 195N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 195N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     35      30      25      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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