ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006 OLIVIA HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BUT OTHER THAN THAT... OLIVIA IS HAVING A BAD HAIR DAY IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA IS T1.5...OR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/08...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM DEPTH CIRCULATION OF OLIVIA IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST... FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IF SOME CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME...A MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TUGGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...AND INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE ILL-DEFINED REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NORMAN. IF OLIVIA CAN SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THIS MORE FAVORABLE REGIME...THEN SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND. AN ADDITIONAL FORECAST POSITION AT 48 HOURS WAS ADDED DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 121.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 17.7N 120.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/0600Z 17.7N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1800Z 17.6N 116.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Oct-2006 08:10:03 UTC