ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND IS LESS BANDED THAN THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN SHEAR...BUT OLIVIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE EXISTING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO KILL OFF OLIVIA ONCE THESE WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE FORECAST DISSIPATION IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/12. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL OLIVIA SHEARS OFF AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. WHEN THIS HAPPENS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND NORMAN WILL GET...AND IF IT HAPPENS LATER RATHER THAN SOONER OLIVIA COULD BE DEFLECTED SOUTHWARD BY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.9N 126.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.2N 124.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 18.2N 122.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 120.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Oct-2006 20:40:04 UTC