Tropical Storm NORMAN

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 175N 1176W 34 62   8(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 12 175N 1176W 50  9   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 12 175N 1176W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 184N 1168W 34  6  34(40)   6(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 24 184N 1168W 50  1   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 184N 1168W 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 191N 1159W 34  X  14(14)  14(28)   3(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 36 191N 1159W 50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 191N 1159W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 199N 1149W 34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   7(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 48 199N 1149W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 199N 1149W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 210N 1130W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 72 210N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 210N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 225N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 96 225N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 225N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      40      35      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN