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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 163N 1181W 34 32  13(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 12 163N 1181W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 163N 1181W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 176N 1182W 34  5  30(35)   7(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 176N 1182W 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 176N 1182W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 187N 1178W 34  1  13(14)  16(30)   4(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 36 187N 1178W 50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 36 187N 1178W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 196N 1172W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   8(23)   4(27)   X(27)   1(28)
 48 196N 1172W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 196N 1172W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 210N 1155W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 72 210N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 210N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 225N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 96 225N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 225N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 240N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 240N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 240N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      40      35      30      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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