Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
0400 UTC MON OCT 09 2006
AT 0400Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 158N 1176W 34 33 12(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
12 158N 1176W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
12 158N 1176W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 173N 1178W 34 3 31(34) 10(44) 2(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47)
24 173N 1178W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 173N 1178W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 185N 1178W 34 X 14(14) 20(34) 7(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44)
36 185N 1178W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
36 185N 1178W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 196N 1173W 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 12(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37)
48 196N 1173W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
48 196N 1173W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 215N 1155W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 1(22)
72 215N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
72 215N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 235N 1130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
96 235N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
96 235N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 255N 1105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
120 255N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 255N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 35 30 25
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: