Tropical Depression NORMAN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. 
CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS
RANGE FROM 2.0  TO 2.5.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1001 MB.  ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT VERY
WELL-ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY TO DESIGNATE
IT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS A COMBINATION
OF THE REMNANT OF NORMAN AND ANOTHER LOW...THERE IS ENOUGH
CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF NORMAN'S REMNANTS TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WARM OCEAN WATERS...AND
PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND.

CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 035/7.  ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL ROTATION OF THE
CENTER AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MAIN STEERING
FEATURES ARE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.  

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THE
MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THEIR COUNTRY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.1N 105.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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