ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 30 KT NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...WHICH HEDGES CLOSELY TOWARD THE SHIPS...INDICATING FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A DRIFT EASTWARD...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH REFLECT A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.5N 117.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.1N 117.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.8N 116.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 115.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1800Z 18.5N 114.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Oct-2006 20:40:04 UTC