Tropical Storm MIRIAM

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 199N 1137W 34 73   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 199N 1137W 50  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 199N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 207N 1139W 34 32  15(47)   2(49)   2(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 24 207N 1139W 50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 207N 1139W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 215N 1145W 34  7  12(19)   6(25)   3(28)   2(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 36 215N 1145W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 215N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 225N 1153W 34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 48 225N 1153W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 225N 1153W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 235N 1160W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 72 235N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 235N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 250N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 96 250N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 250N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     35      30      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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