ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 7 2( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 183N 1135W 34 33 14(47) 2(49) 1(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) 12 183N 1135W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 12 183N 1135W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 193N 1127W 34 5 29(34) 9(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 24 193N 1127W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 24 193N 1127W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 204N 1123W 34 1 13(14) 20(34) 7(41) 2(43) X(43) 1(44) 36 204N 1123W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 204N 1123W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 212N 1125W 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 9(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) 48 212N 1125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 48 212N 1125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 230N 1140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 1(21) 72 230N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 230N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 245N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 96 245N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 96 245N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 270N 1160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 120 270N 1160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 270N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 35 30 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 14:50:03 UTC