ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006 MIRIAM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 18 KT AT 1000 UTC... HOWEVER SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED EVEN FURTHER. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. MIRIAM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS COOLER WATERS AND A DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT GIVING THE SYSTEM VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO REGAIN CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE ALREADY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 000/05...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEST OF NORTH MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ASSUMING REGENERATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON MIRIAM.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 20.1N 113.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Sep-2006 14:45:03 UTC