ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF CONVECTION-CYCLONE DECOUPLING...MIRIAM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM. THE WEAK CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON SPAWNED A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WEST OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL IS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER...IN APPROXIMATELY 30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. AT 2100Z...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON ISLA CLARION REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. HOWEVER...A 0000Z SHIP OBSERVATION 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF 35 KT AND 20-FT SEAS SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...COUNTER TO THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STORM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF MIRIAM THIS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS DIRECTION BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS MIRIAM RESPONDS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.4N 114.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 19.9N 114.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 114.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 22.1N 115.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Sep-2006 02:45:03 UTC