ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 MIRIAM IS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0220 UTC...A COUPLE OF NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND ON AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE USING THE SHEAR PATTERN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. ON THE CONTRARY...THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WEAKENING WILL ALSO BE HASTENED WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS. USING SEVERAL PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A COUPLE OF QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABOUT 015/4. WITH LANE WEAKENING OVER LAND...ITS INFLUENCE ON MIRIAM IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AND THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST...AT A CONTINUED SLOW PACE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.1N 113.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.4N 114.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 08:50:03 UTC