ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E HAS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE AGAIN 35 KT AT 18Z. ON THIS BASIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND...OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURES OF 1005-1006 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGLY UNCERTAIN 040/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE. AFTER THAT...LANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO A NORTHWARD TURN IS NOW INDICATED AT THAT TIME. A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...STABLE INFLOW...AND GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP MIRIAM FROM STRENGTHENING VERY MUCH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING NEAR 48 HR WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 18.2N 114.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 20:50:03 UTC