ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 25(36) 10(46) 2(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 24(34) 10(44) 2(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 1(16) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 13(33) 3(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 9(24) 3(27) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 4(25) X(25) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 8(22) 6(28) X(28) 1(29) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 2 11(13) 18(31) 7(38) 5(43) 1(44) X(44) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 15 31(46) 13(59) 3(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 22 24(46) 9(55) 2(57) 1(58) 1(59) X(59) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 27 3(30) 1(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 10(21) 2(23) 2(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 14(36) 11(47) 1(48) X(48) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 173N 1039W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 173N 1039W 50 11 14(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 12 173N 1039W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 181N 1051W 34 57 26(83) 5(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) 24 181N 1051W 50 1 26(27) 9(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 24 181N 1051W 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 36 190N 1065W 34 5 37(42) 28(70) 7(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) 36 190N 1065W 50 X 5( 5) 23(28) 8(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) 36 190N 1065W 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 48 200N 1077W 34 1 9(10) 33(43) 19(62) 10(72) 1(73) 1(74) 48 200N 1077W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) 48 200N 1077W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 72 220N 1095W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 26(47) 8(55) 2(57) 72 220N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) 1(23) 72 220N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 96 240N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 14(32) 3(35) 96 240N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 96 240N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 255N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 6(24) 120 255N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 120 255N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 55 65 70 75 70 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 09:05:03 UTC