ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 10(25) 2(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 1(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 13(13) 19(32) 7(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 1 15(16) 14(30) 4(34) 4(38) X(38) 1(39) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 11 9(20) 3(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ZIHUATANEJO 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 18(25) 9(34) 3(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 10(27) 2(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 168N 1028W 34 44 21(65) 1(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 12 168N 1028W 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 12 168N 1028W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 176N 1045W 34 2 51(53) 13(66) 3(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) 24 176N 1045W 50 X 12(12) 10(22) 1(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) 24 176N 1045W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 183N 1060W 34 X 17(17) 35(52) 11(63) 5(68) 1(69) X(69) 36 183N 1060W 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) 36 183N 1060W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 48 189N 1073W 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 21(51) 13(64) 2(66) 1(67) 48 189N 1073W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) 48 189N 1073W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 72 200N 1095W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 24(43) 10(53) 2(55) 72 200N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 1(22) 72 200N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 96 215N 1125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 17(29) 4(33) 96 215N 1125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 96 215N 1125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 235N 1145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 120 235N 1145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 120 235N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 50 60 70 75 70 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Sep-2006 20:55:03 UTC