ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF LANE. SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...SEPARATING FROM THE POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/7. THE SURFACE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BASICALLY PARALLELING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL RANGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 25.0N 107.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 25.8N 107.6W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/0000Z 26.7N 108.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1200Z 27.5N 108.7W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 48HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
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