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Hurricane LANE

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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE EYE OF
LANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 955 MB...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 110 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE IN THE
SOUTH EYEWALL JUST AFTER LANDFALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 108
KT...ALTHOUGH THE REDUCTIONS FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE DROP ARE
NOT AVAILABLE.  THESE DATA INDICATE THAT LANE MADE LANDFALL AS A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
HURRICANE IS NOW WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 105 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS LANE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 48-72 HR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 350/9.  LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  IF OVER
WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING
AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 24.4N 107.2W   105 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.6N 107.4W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 26.8N 107.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 27.8N 107.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 28.8N 107.8W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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