ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADARS AT LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE SHOW THAT LANE HAS AN EYE ABOUT 8-10 N MI WIDE. ON SATELLITE...THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80C AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE INCREASED EYE DEFINTION SINCE 12Z. THE LOS CABOS RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LANE IS ABOUT TO START AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS CLOSE TO PEAKING IN INTENSITY EVEN IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXCIO AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/9. LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF OVER WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 23.5N 107.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 15:05:03 UTC