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Hurricane LANE

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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADARS AT LOS CABOS AND
GUASAVE SHOW THAT LANE HAS AN EYE ABOUT 8-10 N MI WIDE.  ON
SATELLITE...THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80C AND
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON THESE
ESTIMATES AND THE INCREASED EYE DEFINTION SINCE 12Z.  THE LOS CABOS
RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LANE IS ABOUT TO START AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS CLOSE TO PEAKING IN
INTENSITY EVEN IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MEXCIO AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/9.  LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  IF OVER
WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING
AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE
DISSIPATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN
MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 23.5N 107.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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