ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LANE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE PRESSURE FELL FROM 989 TO 985 MB IN ABOUT 90 MIN...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE EYE...WHICH IS MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS 8-9 N MI WIDE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THIS SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. LANE HAS TURNED RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/8. THIS TURN WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE... BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 30 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND IN 60-72 HR. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST EARLIER. IF LANE WERE WELL AWAY FROM LAND...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS...AND THE SMALL EYE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN OUTER BAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OVER LAND. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE SMALL EYE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LAND TO REACH 95 KT IN 36 HR BEFORE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION STOPS INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDN. ANY MOTION CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CIRCULATION ON LAND AND WOULD LIKELY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 20.6N 106.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 21.8N 106.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 23.1N 107.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 24.0N 108.3W 95 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 24.7N 108.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 108.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/1800Z 28.5N 108.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Sep-2006 20:55:03 UTC