Hurricane LANE

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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LANE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE
PRESSURE FELL FROM 989 TO 985 MB IN ABOUT 90 MIN...ALONG WITH
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
EYEWALL.  THE EYE...WHICH IS MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS 8-9 N MI WIDE.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT.  THIS SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND 65 KT FROM SAB.

LANE HAS TURNED RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 340/8.  THIS TURN WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE
NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS
WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 
THE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 30 HR.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND
CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH
GRADUAL DECELERATION.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF 
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
IN 60-72 HR.  HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE
COAST EARLIER.

IF LANE WERE WELL AWAY FROM LAND...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS...AND THE SMALL EYE STRUCTURE. 
HOWEVER...THE MAIN OUTER BAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OVER LAND.  BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE SMALL EYE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
LAND TO REACH 95 KT IN 36 HR BEFORE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION
STOPS INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND
THE GFDL...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDN.  ANY MOTION
CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CIRCULATION ON
LAND AND WOULD LIKELY SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 20.6N 106.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 21.8N 106.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 23.1N 107.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 24.0N 108.3W    95 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 24.7N 108.6W    95 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N 108.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1800Z 28.5N 108.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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