ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL... AND BOTH CORE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL HARD TO GAUGE. THE MICROWAVE PASS THIS MORNING GAVE A POSITION A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. LANE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AT SOME POINT. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SERIOUS GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST OUTLIER...WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD PRESENT MOTION...A HURRICANE WATCH STILL SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND THE BAMS SHOW A SHARP RECURVATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IN THE LATER PERIODS IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION OF LINGERING LANE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LANE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30C AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX REMAINS VERY AGRESSIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IS THE SHIPS MODEL ITSELF. THE GFDL IS NOT USEFUL SINCE IT TAKES LANE OVER LAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION THERE IS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.9N 105.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W 85 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 20:45:03 UTC