Tropical Storm LANE

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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
 
A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL...
AND BOTH CORE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS
MORNING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND
45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL HARD TO GAUGE. THE MICROWAVE PASS THIS
MORNING GAVE A POSITION A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. LANE IS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AT SOME
POINT.  THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SERIOUS GUIDANCE WITH A
TRACK WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST
OUTLIER...WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES.  GIVEN
THE MORE WESTWARD PRESENT MOTION...A HURRICANE WATCH STILL SEEMS
MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND THE BAMS SHOW A
SHARP RECURVATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  I AM NOT READY TO MAKE
THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IN THE LATER
PERIODS IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION OF LINGERING LANE IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LANE.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30C AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT.  THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX REMAINS VERY AGRESSIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IS THE SHIPS MODEL
ITSELF.  THE GFDL IS NOT USEFUL SINCE IT TAKES LANE OVER LAND IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION THERE
IS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 17.9N 105.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W    75 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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