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Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 186N 1188W 34 46   5(51)   1(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 186N 1188W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 186N 1188W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 185N 1187W 34 41   4(45)   1(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 24 185N 1187W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 185N 1187W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 183N 1184W 34 13   4(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 183N 1184W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 183N 1184W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 180N 1180W 34  5   4( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 48 180N 1180W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 180N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      20      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
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