ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT KRISTY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEPRESSION STRENGTH...AND COULD POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT AROUND MID PERIOD AS THE HIGH TEMPORARILY RETROGRADES TO A POSITION NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 3. THEREAFTER....MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND 36-48 HR PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 16.4N 130.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 16.4N 131.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.4N 133.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 16.4N 134.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 142.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC