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Tropical Depression KRISTY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006

KRISTY IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME AS IT MOVES INTO A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS.  THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OCEAN WATERS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME VERY STRONG...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM IN ITS PRESENT STATE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY COULD
EVEN RE-STRENGTHEN.  GIVEN THE TENACIOUS NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THAT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS.
ALTERNATIVELY...HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO IT WOULD DISSIPATE MUCH
SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED JUST A TAD...TO 10 OR 11 KT.  A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER BECAUSE
OF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.6N 130.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N 132.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.9N 136.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N 142.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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