ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A 0208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH DAY 3. THEN...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE UKMET/GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE ONLY REMAINING MODELS THAT DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.0N 126.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.9N 131.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 18.0N 134.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 143.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC