ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C IN A BAND WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THERE WAS A 47 KT AMSU ESTIMATE AT 0153 UTC. GIVEN THE DECREASING CONVECTION IT IS TEMPTING TO DOWNGRADE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION...BUT THAT SHOULD PROBABLY WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY BE A BIT FASTER. KRISTY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WILL WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP KRISTY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...SAVE FOR THE BAMD AND LBAR WHICH TURN KRISTY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKENING RIDGE. SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT KRISTY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH A TURN...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE BALANCE OF THE GUIDANCE WESTWARD. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ALL CALL FOR KRISTY TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR EVEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CONVECTION WILL RETURN AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO TO 40 KT...LESS THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE KRISTY TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR...THEN KRISTY COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO INSTEAD OF STRENGTHENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.3N 125.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.7N 127.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.1N 129.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.2N 130.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 19.0N 138.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 19.0N 141.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC