ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 THERE WAS ANOTHER SMALL PUFF OF CONVECTION...SINCE DISSIPATED... EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z HAD A FEW BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. OVERALL...KRISTY'S CIRCULATION LOOKS LESS VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND IT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN. HOWEVER...THE RECENT CONVECTION MEANS WE WILL NEED TO WAIT A BIT LONGER BEFORE TERMINATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/5. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION...IN RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES...THAT KRISTY WITH ITS ANEMIC CONVECTION CONTINUES TO IGNORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE AND INTERACT MINIMALLY WITH THE EASTERLIES. AS A RESULT...IT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS HAVE BEEN LIMITING CONVECTION...AND I SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A DECREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES UPSTREAM AND HEADED KRISTY'S WAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT KRISTY WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.2N 119.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.1N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC