Tropical Depression KRISTY

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
 
I REFUSE TO CLASSIFY KRISTY AS A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS DO NOT EVEN
JUSTIFY TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE IS STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER KRISTY AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED. AS IT IS COMMON IN
THESE SYSTEMS...CLUSTERS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION COULD
RE-DEVELOP.
 
THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 17.5N 118.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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