ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION WRAPPING ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 03/0144Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL 40-45 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS...ON THE WEST SIDE OF KRISTY. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. HOWEVER ...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KRISTY COULD BE A MINIMAL INTENSITY TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/02. KRISTY REMAINS CAUGHT IN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN...WHICH IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND IS ACTING TO NUDGE KRISTY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AS JOHN GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENS...THE STEERING INFLUENCE BY THE TROUGH ON KRISTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BY 24-36 HOURS...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...FORCING KRISTY OR ITS REMNANTS ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR THE ADDITION OF A 48-HOUR POSITION. THE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 96 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THAT LONG. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH WILL PLACE THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER 28C SSTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF REGENERATION OF DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IF KRISTY CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE BACK INTO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 18.1N 118.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.9N 117.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 117.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z 17.2N 118.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC