Tropical Depression KRISTY

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN LACKING
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE AIR
MASS...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 100/3...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND DISSIPATE IN
48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
UKMET...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL SHOW A SHALLOW VORTEX MOVING
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A RETROGRADING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KRISTY.  IF KRISTY HANGS ON AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEYOND
THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SWIRL
WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHING
EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 18.3N 118.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.6N 117.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 116.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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