ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0210Z CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND THAT THE 34-KT WINDS IN THIS SMALL CYCLONE EXTEND ONLY ABOUT 40 NM FROM THE CENTER. NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION WAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME...BUT A BURST HAS SINCE RESUMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. KRISTY REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR NOW...BUT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. KRISTY HAD BEEN LIMPING WESTWARD AT A COUPLE OF KNOTS...BUT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IT APPEARS TO HAVE PULLED UP STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AND OVERALL THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ANTICIPATE A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...SEEMINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE JOHN LOCATED ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE JOHN GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE...SOME LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW KRISTY AGAIN MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. SINCE JOHN AND KRISTY WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ANY CLOSER TOGETHER THAN THEY ARE NOW...I AM UNCONVINCED THAT KRISTY WILL BE DRAWN AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. HOWEVER...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SMALL U-TURN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INSIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL 72 HOUR POSITION IS COINCIDENTALLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GFDL...BUT WITHOUT THE BACK AND FORTH MOTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.0N 119.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 18.9N 119.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 18.7N 119.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.6N 118.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 04/0600Z 18.5N 118.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC