ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 A 0959 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ESTIMATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KRISTY IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE DATA T-NUMBERS AND CI NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AND ENCOUNTER WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THESE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN KRISTY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING KRISTY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN. THE UKMET...GFS...GFD...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE JOHN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DISSIPATE IT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...BUT SLOWER...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.3N 118.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 118.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.2N 119.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 120.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC