ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 TWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM 2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE. DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER AMORPHOUS. DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT KRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION OF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE. OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A FUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY HURRICANE JOHN. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE MOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME. THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES. AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED. INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA NNNN
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