ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. BANDING THAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL. THE DEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT THE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND ANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD GIVE KRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT. OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC