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Tropical Storm KRISTY


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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM
1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. 
ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48
HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN
2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES
SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS
THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
 
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