ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTHOUGH IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND A NEW BURST OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...WITH EVEN A SUGGESTION OF AN INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELD A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS USED...MAYBE CONSERVATIVELY...FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING AND KRISTY SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. LATER ON...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 305/5. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF KRISTY. SINCE THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY REALISTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AT HOURS 96-120. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 17.0N 115.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 119.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 04/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC