ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON EARLIER SATELLITE PICTURES...RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMMA-LIKE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEVELOPING. CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY COLD OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SHORT-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/5. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.7N 115.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC