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Tropical Storm JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  3  20(23)   4(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
P ABREOJOS     50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
LORETO         34 61   5(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
LORETO         50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUAYMAS        34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 258N 1121W 34 68  11(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 12 258N 1121W 50 22   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 258N 1121W 64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 268N 1132W 34  4  34(38)   3(41)   1(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 268N 1132W 50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 268N 1132W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 278N 1143W 34  1   8( 9)   9(18)   2(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 36 278N 1143W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 278N 1143W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 287N 1153W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 48 287N 1153W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 287N 1153W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 295N 1170W 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 295N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 295N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 295N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 96 295N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 295N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     40      30      25      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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